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Box Office Predictions (5-7th July)

YES!!! This is the weekend I have wanted to get into since I started doing the Box Office Predictions, get ready for an epic win and an epic fail. The two new releases, first is Despicable Me 2 an animated children’s film following a massively successful first instalment with mass family appeal and big tracking numbers, and the second release is The Lone Ranger which haha should be fun to watch (not for Disney) so how will this unbelievably bloated excuse for a blockbuster do? The returning films The Heat and White House Down won’t be bothered too much this weekend but how much lower can they go and Monsters University should take whopping drop with the release of its biggest Competition Despicable Me 2. Will I get the numbers spot on? Will your predictions beat mine? Well the only way to find out is to read this prediction post and the results on Monday and go watch some movies, now to the breakdowns.

Prediction-banner

Returning Films

Last weekend we had some surprises, some did well others really didn’t. The Heat did well last weekend with respectable numbers and with no new competition am predicting $18M. White House Down is never seeing that $150M again with bad reviews and low numbers last weekend I’d look for a drop of 60% at $11M. World War Z seems to hold on pretty well so far and I don’t see any reason it should drop too much, am predicting $14M.

New Films

Despicable Me 2

Despicable-Me-2-poster

Plot:

Universal Pictures and Illumination Entertainment’s worldwide blockbuster Despicable Me entertained audiences around the globe in 2010, grossing more than $540 million and becoming the 10th-biggest animated motion picture in U.S. history. In summer 2013, get ready for more Minion madness in Despicable Me 2.

Analysis:

Only a fool would bet against this film doing well this weekend. I’ve heard the lowest prediction around $60M and the highest at $120M but anything above $70M and they’ve made their money back. The first film made $56M and did amazingly well internationally so expect big money for this film over the summer. World Wide this film could get close to $1B but that’s a stretch. The real question is whether it beats Monsters University’s opening weekend of $82M. My prediction is that it will beat it with $110M. It could make more though and the 5 day weekend is a little weird to predict but let’s say $170.

The Lone Ranger – EPIC FAIL!!!

the-lone-ranger-poster

Plot:

From producer Jerry Bruckheimer and director Gore Verbinski, the filmmaking team behind the blockbuster “Pirates of the Caribbean” franchise, comes Disney/ Jerry Bruckheimer Films’ “The Lone Ranger,” a thrilling adventure infused with action and humor, in which the famed masked hero is brought to life through new eyes. Native American spirit warrior Tonto (Johnny Depp) recounts the untold tales that transformed John Reid (Armie Hammer), a man of the law, into a legend of justice-taking the audience on a runaway train of epic surprises and humorous friction as the two unlikely heroes must learn to work together and fight against greed and corruption.

Analysis:

Why does Disney have giant bloated flop in their business plan? Pulling a John Carter this year we have Disney’s largest budgeted film The Lone Ranger. Actually John Carter being a Sci-Fi film made its money back thanks to ok international earnings, but you know what genre of film doesn’t make a dime outside of the US? Westerns. So with that in mind how much will this film need to make in its opening weekend to eventually make its money back? Well I figured it’s about $80+M. HAHAHAHA! It’s not going to get close to that in the 5 day weekend let alone the 3 day weekend. John Carter made $30M in its first weekend and the only thing stopping it being that bad is Jonny Depp and schools out. My prediction is $35M and for the 5 day weekend $55M.

My Prediction

  1. Despicable Me 2:   -$110M
  2. The Lone Ranger:   -$35M
  3. Monsters University:   -$20M
  4. The Heat:   -$18M
  5. World War Z:   -$14M
  6. Man of Steel:   -$11M
  7. White House Down:   -$11M
  8. This is the End:   -$5M
  9. Now You See Me:  -$3M
  10. Fast & Furious 6:  -$1M

 

Well that’s my views. Now what do you think about this weekend and its new releases?

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About Tim The Film Guy

Very opinionated about films Mwahahahahaha!

31 responses to “Box Office Predictions (5-7th July)”

  1. Nerdy Girl Ramblings says :

    Epic Fail is right! I haven’t seen either but I have a hard time justifying paying the money to see Lone Ranger in theaters. Living in the US, I don’t think the film was marketed well at all and I think that had a big something to do with it. Even with Johnny Depp, it just comes across more awkward then hilarious and fun. I agree that it probably woulnd’t have done amazingly well abroad regardless… but even here it’s felt like a bit of a miss from the get go.

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  2. John DuMond says :

    Lone Ranger had fail written all over it from the beginning. When the movie’s “star” is playing the sidekick, as opposed to the title character, and your title character is played by a relative unknown (a nobody compared to Depp), you’re not building the foundation for a major blockbuster.

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  3. theipc says :

    Look at that!! Almost 100,000 hits!!

    Like

  4. Lights Camera Reaction says :

    I can’t believe how much it cost to make The Lone Ranger. It’s crazy isn’t it?

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  5. Nick Powell says :

    I read somewhere that The Lone Ranger needs to open above $50 to not be considered a bomb. I agree with you that it’ll probably get in the high 30s, low 40s range. I’m hoping it utterly bombs and teaches Disney and Depp a lesson.

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    • Tim The Film Guy says :

      If it was any other genre than western I’d agree but the problem with westerns is that they make next to no money abroad, so it has to make all its money in the domestic box office 😀

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  6. Anonymous says :

    I think your predictions look pretty spot-on, although I think the overall box office might be a little stronger…

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  7. The Celtic Predator says :

    I am so sick of seeing commercials for LR. I can’t wait to see it bomb. Epic fail indeed.

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  8. Daniel Prinn says :

    Yeah, you’ll be closer for Despicable Me 2. Damn. Lone Ranger is gonna bomb. I think the budget went to the actors’ salaries (mostly Depp’s, I mean, if Downey Jr. got $50 million for The Avengers [or was it IM3?], imagine what he got for this!) And there’s the lesser salaries for Bonham Carter, Hammer and Fichtner. And Verbinski probably got a big paycheck. And then they had to get the rights to remake it. And then 3D… It seems like there’s a lot of destruction in the movie… But it isn’t a heavy CGI flick, so, the salaries must have been a freaking huge chunk.

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    • Tim The Film Guy says :

      Mwahahaha taking this weekend as a win 😀

      Robert Downey Jr got a percentage of the films earnings which amounted to $50M. Nobody gets paid anywhere near that much ahaha and neither would Depp.

      See I saw a huge amount of unnecessary CGI in the trailers for Lone Ranger. But I haven’t seen the film so i’d need to wait to say exactly where the money went 😀

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  9. Ian Coomber says :

    I’ve just come back from watching Now You See Me. A nice low key film that I agree probably isn’t on as many peoples to watch list, but is a great flick and deserves to be higher than I reckon it ultimately will be..

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  10. Erik says :

    Lone Ranger just looks so bad…I am sure Disney had a good reason investing that much in it.

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  11. lukebbtt says :

    The irony is that the best Westerns are low-budget haha.

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    • Tim The Film Guy says :

      Cowboys vs Aliens made the most with $36M opening weekend, but that had big stars and it was a sci fi film, this has even less going for it but it should make a little more.

      How did they think a $250M budget was okay? Seriously its absolutely insane!

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